According to 2011 year-end Multiple Listing Service (MLS) statistics, local Home prices dropped dramatically that year. What can we expect for 2012?

For all all single family residences sold in Brattleboro in Calendar 2010 median sale price was 183,000, just $4,900 off from the median asking price of 186,900,

In 2011 the median asking price was 184.000, and median sale price was 165,000. This is a one-year drop of 9.8% in sale prices for for Brattleboro Homes, which parallels the drop for the same period in Windham County.  CHART COMPARING 2011 YEAR-END HOME PRICES WITH PREVIOUS YEAR

Market conditions for 2012

It is very difficult to project year-end totals from first quarter sales figures because typically, less than 18%  of the total sales for any given year take place during the first quarter.

In Brattleboro, only 13 single family homes sold during the first quarter of 2012, 14 in the first quarter of 2011, and only 9 during the first quarter of 2010.   Windham County gives us a better sample size. Let’s look at the first quarter figures:

 

 

 

The small sample size of the Brattleboro figures makes them almost random. The county figures seem to indicate an upward shift.

Together with national news about strengthening economic indicators, such as consumer confidence and lower unemployment, lead me to feel cautiously optimistic that local home prices hit bottom in 2011 and that we are now in the very early stage of a recovery.