Steven K-Brooks

This year, local housing statistics do not seem to reveal an obvious trend. Uncertainty in business is a yellow light, although caution might be somewhat mitigated when we look at the national trend.

In a February 25, 2014 press release, Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller 20 city index reports an 11.4% home price increase over the previous year. The release is misleadingly titled, Home Prices Lose Momentum because of a recent two-month slowing of the continuing price rise, amounting to only a few tenths of a percent off.

While national prices were racing up in 2013, median Vermont median home prices dropped 3.5% statewide, 1.4% in Windham County, and by a dramatic 6.9% in Brattleboro.


YEAR	BRATTLEBORO	WINHAM COUNTY	VERMONT STATEWIDE
2005	185,000	210,000	199,000
2006	185,000	211,500	206,000
2007	180,000	215,000	210,000
2008	170,000	197,500	205,000
2009	179,250	195,000	190,000
2010	183,000	200,500	195,000
2011	165,000	182,225	198,700
2012	177,500	185,000	195,000
2013	165,250	182,500	202,000

The nearly 7% price drop sticks out like a sore thumb, so I reviewed particular sales to find out whether the lower figures simply represent homes of lower intrinsic values, or if we are actually experiencing a genuine slide.

Upon examination of listing sheets for the homes clustered around the median in 2012 compared with the same in 2013, it appeared to me that the homes themselves were of comparable quality. And the tax assessments for those homes seemed remarkably consistent, one year to the next.

With a high degree of confidence, I am of the opinion that single family homes in Brattleboro have lost significant market value in the past year. But recent, sharp, yearly fluctuations in Brattleboro median home prices (up in 2010, big 2011 drop, dramatic rise in 2012, then dramatic 2013 fall) make 2014 hard to predict.

Real estate agents representing sellers promote the asking price, and buyer’s agents also work to get the best deal for their clients. Ultimately, the fair market value of a home is determined by the amount an informed buyer is able and willing to pay, the amount that the seller can and will accept, and the ability of these two parties to come to a meeting of minds.

Access to relevant information, including market statistics, facilitates sound buying decisions as well as realistic pricing by sellers. The following tables give greater detail for Bratteboro, Windham County, and Vermont.

YEAR	#LISTED	# SOLD	RATIO	MEDIAN ASKING $	MEDIAN SALE $
2005	145	129	0.89	189,900	185,000
2006	179	138	0.77	189,700	185,000
2007	187	113	0.60	189,900	180,000
2008	136	87	0.64	179,900	170,000
2009	140	84	0.60	189,900	179,250
2010	161	77	0.48	186,900	183,000
2011	150	71	0.47	184,000	165,000
2012	168	87	0.52	189,900	177,500
2013	192	94	0.49	174,799	165,250

YEAR	#LISTED	# SOLD	RATIO	MEDIAN ASKING $	MEDIAN SALE $
2005	922	829	0.90	219,000	210,000
2006	1,109	675	0.61	224,000	211,500
2007	1,419	595	0.42	229,000	215,000
2008	1,269	537	0.42	209,000	197,500
2009	1,419	522	0.37	210,000	195,000
2010	1,357	508	0.37	216,450	200,500
2011	1,207	464	0.38	199,000	182,225
2012	1,255	517	0.41	199,000	185,000
2013	1,354	593	0.44	198,599	182,500

YEAR	#LISTED	# SOLD	RATIO	MEDIAN ASKING $	MEDIAN SALE $
2005	9,665	7,571	0.78	200,000	199,000
2006	12,021	7,044	0.59	215,950	206,000
2007	14,113	6,434	0.46	219,000	210,000
2008	13,174	5,204	0.40	215,000	205,000
2009	13,300	5,036	0.38	199,900	190,000
2010	12,800	5,015	0.39	205,000	195,000
2011	11,926	5,065	0.42	209,000	198,700
2012	12,617	5,864	0.46	205,000	195,000
2013	13,972	6,662	0.48	213,300	202,000

Can we trust the
statistics?

by Steven K-Brooks